Are the Tories set to lose ALL of their Welsh Seats?
? Poll suggests Labour would win 84% of Welsh seats in GE2024, amid a Tory wipeout in Wales.? LAB 22 (+9)? PC 4 (+2)? LD 1 (+1)? CON 0 (-12)Based on @RedfieldWilton poll, 24-26 Jan (+/- vs 2019)...
View ArticleThe challenge facing Sunak
?NEW: Rishi Sunak would need to pull off the biggest political comeback in 70 years to win the next election Ten months out, no party has overturned a polling deficit of 7 points or more; Sunak is...
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The long road to a united Ireland
"I'm honoured to stand here as First Minister. We mark a moment of equality and a moment of progress. A new opportunity to work and grow together."Michelle O'Neill speaks at Stormont as she makes...
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The State of Process – The Process State
Understand procedure, understand warUnderstand rules, regulations – Forever Failure, Draconian Time album, Paradise Lost Consider a few straws in the wind – The National Trust plans to spend £250,000...
View ArticleWhat’s happening with the polling “don’t knows”
The proportion of “don’t knows” in opinion polls is not particularly high at this stage: @PME_Politics https://t.co/nzUipk2OdJ pic.twitter.com/K2xyFWAlxz— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 4, 2024...
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Will Sunak still be PM at the general election
Every week or so it seems we get a new rumour about plots for a different CON leader to be in place at the general election. This, of course, requires that there are enough Tory MPs ready to demand a...
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Will GE2024 produce a majority seats winner with a minority of votes?
The report notes: “In 2010, First Past the Post delivered us a coalition government, the first since 1945, under a system designed to produce single-party majorities. In 2015, First Past the Post gave...
View ArticleUpending assumptions
NEW INSIGHT: Despite Trump's self-proclaimed role in overturning Roe, only 48% of voters believe he will pursue a national abortion ban and only 24% blame him for new abortion bans.The disparity...
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Punters give Trump a 79% chance of winning every state primary
The Smarkets rules for this bet are: This market relates to whether Donald Trump finishes in first place in the popular vote in every Republican presidential primary and caucus in which delegates are...
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LAB fancied to make more by-election gains in the Feb 15th contests
There’s been very little betting interest in the two Tory by-elections defences that take place on February 15th. The assumption is that these will be two easy victories for LAB that will take to 7...
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Why Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson
Great stat. A useful reminder that, contrary to persistent myths on parts of the right, Johnson was not a popular leader in 2019 https://t.co/JC655jVuN4— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) February 7, 2024 TSE
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The SNP’s lead in Scotland down to just 7%
The above maps show what happened in Scotland at the last general election. As can be seen the SNP was totally dominant with LAB reduced to a just single seat. A new Scotland poll from Ipsos just out...
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Biden slips sharply in the WH2024 betting after more memory lapses
Time for him to end his vanity trip
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Life after Sunak – Tory Leadership Contenders
From Pip Moss The next Tory Leadership contest should be one of the most fiercely fought for some time. Rather than choosing a new Prime Minister, it is highly likely the Tories will select a new...
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A 50% return in fewer than three months?
We'd offer 1/2 on this being the widest margin of victory in London Mayoral election history (since 2000)https://t.co/XSJYmpEmoD https://t.co/1Maa9vjSgm— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 7,...
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Impeaching Joe Biden
Betfair have this market on whether the Joe Biden will be impeached before the election. What I like about this bet is that the terms are very clear If the House of Representatives pass at least one...
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Suddenly the betting money goes on Michelle Obama
One of the big developments in the WH2024 race is the growing interest in Michelle Obama being the Democratic nominee. This has been triggered by what was always going to be an issue over Biden- he’s...
View ArticleCareless Rishi
Even more ouch. pic.twitter.com/eRxz68v4pr— TSE (@TSEofPB) February 12, 2024 Sadly for Rishi Sunak perceptions around him are actively damaging for the Tory Party as this YouGov poll finds Rishi Sunak...
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The Return of the King at 100/1?
Why it’s unlikely Lord Cameron would become PM again despite Tory plots to oust Sunak ? One MP tells @theipaper the Foreign Secretary is being floated by Tory plotters as a potential 'unity candidate'...
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